EUREKA: Analyzing the economic impact of natural hazards

Earthquakes, seastorms and active volcanos. The Italian area of Napoli is known for its expansive natural hazards. The company EUREKA is aiming to segment risks in the area. Its approach could make construction projects in the European Union safer in the future.

 People at an evacuation center - (c) amata90 / Shutterstock.com

People at an evacuation center - (c) amata90 / Shutterstock.com

“We evaluate the economic impact of natural disasters.” Davide Del Cogliano is leading the company EUREKA in Napoly, Italy. To many people, EUREKA was previously known for its business consulting competence. Due to its closeness to active volcanoes like the famous Vesuvio and many other natural hazards Del Cogliano decided to reach into a second branch - hazard evaluation.

“We provide data for municipalities on how much a natural disaster will cost. This is crucial for coordinating rescue measures and cautionary measures. Our analysis includes the hazard itself but also rescue missions and reconstruction.” EUREKA provides data from simulations to show the real economic impact of natural hazards.

Making consturction projects in the EU safer

EUREKA will now provide an economic model for climate change hazards for the whole of the European Union. Within the CLARITY project (Funded by Horizon 2020) partners in Italy, Austria, Spain and Sweden work together to predict climate change impacts for construction projects in the EU.

The CLARITY project will offer a map on which geographical zones are distributed by their quality of possible climate change impacts. That way, the first hazard analysis of a new project can be done easily, fast and cost efficiently.

 Davide Del Cogliano (c) Annalaura Pretaroli

Davide Del Cogliano (c) Annalaura Pretaroli

ABOUT EUREKA

Since 1993 Eureka works in the field of management consulting with particular reference to the development of new businesses, concentrating the knowledge and skills of experienced professionals.

Eureka services are composed as follows:

Simulation model for economic impact evaluation of natural disasters

Eureka, based on many experiences over the years in the development of simulation models and forecasts of the economic impact on businesses, local systems, has developed the following competencies:

·      Ability to analyze complex phenomena and their transposition into simulation models;

·      Ability to perform what-if analysis of economic phenomena;

·      Development of models for sensitivity analysis related to the assessment of investment projects;

·      Specific territory “reading” skills of, through analysis of the economic-territorial data and indicators;

·      Preparation of territorial development plans;

·      Management of databases on statistical indicators;

·      Experience (the company and/or professionals) in the assessment of impacts caused by natural phenomena (earthquakes, storms, volcanic eruptions, floods, etc.).

Thanks to those capabilities Eureka is able to accomplish the following tasks:

•               Identification of the main input parameters and corresponding units;

•               Definition of algorithms useful for the simulation of output;

•               Identification of the main output variables and their units;

•               Design of the model (input variables, algorithms, output, etc.);

•               Definition of a set of input variables and output on which to build any sensitivity analysis;

•               Construction of the simulation model in Microsoft Excel;

•               Test of the model with available and/or estimated data.

Business Planning. This service, offered on the basis of a consolidated methodology for the assessment of the economic and financial results, is provided flexibly and customised according to the specific needs connected to the formulation of a business plan: presentation of application for facilitated loans, initiate relationship with banking organisations, feasibility verification of initiative or the presentation of the initiative to potential financing subjects.

The activity concerns business already started, analysing the adopted strategies and the quantitative elements in order to identify the necessary modifications and to assess the overall soundness and the economic and financial feasibility, or new business initiatives by supporting the arrangement, from strategic, operational and organisational viewpoint, of the company activities in the different areas of management (production, marketing, management control, finance, etc.).

Financial modelling. This service is closely related to the business planning. It aims to provide a financial representation of some, or all, aspects of a business, by using specific software.  Thanks to the technical expertise and experience gained in many industries, Eureka is able to develop “financial needs” models. These models are characterized by performing calculations based on financial information. The models may also summarize particular events for the end user and provide direction regarding possible actions or alternatives for financial needs coverage.

Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA). The service aims to provide the methodology and calculation support to Public administrators in order to evaluate the convenience and the opportunity to invest in public infrastructures.

The CBA is also performed by Eureka in order to support quantitative evaluation of mitigation actions finalized to reduce natural or man-made impacts.

Programming and achievement of analysis, promotion and development interventions in specific industries and economic areas. The service aims to provide the business consulting and technical assistance activities in favour of private companies and public administrations: companies audit, business check-up, studies and research, etc.

Design of managerial and support to decision-making systems and subsequent assistance to their implementation. The service aims to provide the business consulting and technical assistance activities in favour of private companies and public administrations: management control systems; workload detection systems; budget formulation, orders control systems, etc.

Expertise and relevant Projects

•               REACHING OUT. Demonstration of EU effective large scale threat and crisis management outside the EU, EU Horizon2020, 2016-2019.

•               CRISMA “Modelling crisis management for improved action and preparedness” – Economic Impact modelling and Cost Benefit Analysis for mitigation action assessment - commissioned by AMRA (Centre of Competence in sector Analysis and Monitoring of Environmental Risk (2013-2014).

•               ARES “Risk Analysis Update for Vesuvio and Campi Flegrei Areas”, commissioned by LUPT Research Center - Naples University – Italy (2014).

•               SpeeD - Eruption Event of Vesuvius within the project for the definition of scenarios and hazard Damage within the activities of the Center of Competence PLINIVS (University of Naples "Federico II) and the Agreement between the Campania Region and the Department of Civil Protection (2009 through 2014).

•               Sea storm on the coastal system of the Campania Region - commissioned by AMRA (Centre of Competence in sector Analysis and Monitoring of Environmental Risk (2007).

•               SAVE - Earthquake - part of the (Updated tools for Seismic Vulnerability Heritage Estate and of Urban Systems) sponsored by University of Naples and University of Basilicata and funded by GNDT-INGV (2003 to 2005).

Davide Del Cogliano has wrote, with other authors from Plinius Center, D. Del Cogliano et al, “Economic impact of explosive volcanic eruptions: A simulation-based assessment model applied to Campania region volcanoes”, Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, October 2013.